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Neudrossenfeld vs Hankofen-Hailing — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Neudrossenfeld
Neudrossenfeld
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
A. Makarenko 90'
J. Larkow 75', 43'
A. Wagner 10'
9/15/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 12Sportanlage Neudrossenfeld Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Neudrossenfeld39%
×Draw24%
Hankofen-Hailing37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neudrossenfeld
1.53
Hankofen-Hailing
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Neudrossenfeld
1.56
Hankofen-Hailing
1.67

allows per match

Neudrossenfeld
1.31
Hankofen-Hailing
1.50

finishing

Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par
Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neudrossenfeld ↓

Hankofen-Hailing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Neudrossenfeld or draw
63%
Neudrossenfeld or Hankofen-Hailing
76%
Draw or Hankofen-Hailing
61%

Winning margin

Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+
19%
Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals
78%
Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals
45%
Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals
20%
Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
77%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
44%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)
51%
Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neudrossenfeld at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

Hankofen-Hailing away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.56 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Hankofen-Hailing attack 1.67 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Neudrossenfeld scores more
39%
level
24%
Hankofen-Hailing scores more
37%

Neudrossenfeld at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Neudrossenfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Wagner
43'
J. Larkow
75'
J. Larkow
90'
A. Makarenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Neudrossenfeld 3–1 Hankofen-Hailing

Neudrossenfeld beat Hankofen-Hailing 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 15, 2023.

Goals: A. Wagner (10'), J. Larkow (43', 75'), A. Makarenko (90').

The match was played at Sportanlage Neudrossenfeld Platz 1 in Neudrossenfeld.