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Neudrossenfeld vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Neudrossenfeld
Neudrossenfeld
FT
4 – 5
HT: 4 – 2
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
M. Seiter 25'
M. Sauerstein 21', 2'
S. Kolb 8'
T. Deliboyraz 88', 10'
A. M. Owusu 74'
S. Kolb 57', 45' (OG)
7/22/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Sportanlage Neudrossenfeld Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Neudrossenfeld46%
×Draw24%
ATSV Erlangen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neudrossenfeld
1.63
ATSV Erlangen
1.24

Neudrossenfeld creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Neudrossenfeld
1.57
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Neudrossenfeld
1.33
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neudrossenfeld ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Neudrossenfeld or draw
71%
Neudrossenfeld or ATSV Erlangen
76%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
54%

Winning margin

Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+
24%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals
80%
Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals
48%
Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals
22%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
71%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
35%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)
61%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neudrossenfeld at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.57 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Neudrossenfeld scores more
46%
level
24%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
29%

Neudrossenfeld at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Neudrossenfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
M. Sauerstein
8'
S. Kolb
10'
T. Deliboyraz
21'
M. Sauerstein
25'
M. Seiter
45'
S. KolbOwn goal
57'
S. Kolb
74'
A. M. Owusu
88'
T. Deliboyraz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neudrossenfeld vs ATSV Erlangen

ATSV Erlangen beat Neudrossenfeld 5-4 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 22, 2025.

Goals: M. Sauerstein (2', 21'), S. Kolb (8', 45' o.g., 57'), T. Deliboyraz (10', 88'), M. Seiter (25'), A. M. Owusu (74').

The match was played at Sportanlage Neudrossenfeld Platz 1 in Neudrossenfeld.