Neudrossenfeld 1–0 ASV Neumarkt: Result & Stats

Neudrossenfeld

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ASV Neumarkt

7/31/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 3Sportanlage Neudrossenfeld Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Neudrossenfeld43%

×Draw24%

ASV Neumarkt34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeudrossenfeldExpected goals in this matchASV Neumarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.46

Neudrossenfeld

1.67

ASV Neumarkt

1.46

Neudrossenfeld creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

1.57

creates per match

1.58

1.33

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Neudrossenfeld

1.57

ASV Neumarkt

1.58

allows per match

Neudrossenfeld

1.33

ASV Neumarkt

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neudrossenfeld ↓

ASV Neumarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Neudrossenfeld or draw

66%

Neudrossenfeld or ASV Neumarkt

76%

Draw or ASV Neumarkt

57%

Winning margin

Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+

22%

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals

81%

Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals

50%

Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals

23%

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals

77%

ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals

43%

ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)

56%

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neudrossenfeld at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.57 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.67

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Neudrossenfeld scores more

43%

level

24%

ASV Neumarkt scores more

34%

Neudrossenfeld at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Neudrossenfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff