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Neuchâtel Xamax II vs Muri — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Neuchâtel Xamax II
Neuchâtel Xamax II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Muri
Muri
11/26/20221. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stade de la Maladière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Neuchâtel Xamax II64%
×Draw17%
Muri19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neuchâtel Xamax II
2.97
Muri
1.61

Neuchâtel Xamax II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Neuchâtel Xamax II
2.47
Muri
1.50

allows per match

Neuchâtel Xamax II
1.73
Muri
3.47

finishing

Neuchâtel Xamax II+0.00on par
Muri+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchâtel Xamax II ↓

Muri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Neuchâtel Xamax II or draw
81%
Neuchâtel Xamax II or Muri
83%
Draw or Muri
36%

Winning margin

Neuchâtel Xamax II wins by 2+
45%
Muri wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Neuchâtel Xamax II 1+ goals
95%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 2+ goals
79%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 3+ goals
56%
Muri 1+ goals
80%
Muri 2+ goals
48%
Muri 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Neuchâtel Xamax II (draw refunded)
77%
Muri (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchâtel Xamax II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Muri away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchâtel Xamax II attack 2.47 + Muri defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.97

Muri attack 1.50 + Neuchâtel Xamax II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Neuchâtel Xamax II scores more
64%
level
17%
Muri scores more
19%

Neuchâtel Xamax II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Neuchâtel Xamax II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neuchâtel Xamax II vs Muri

Neuchâtel Xamax II beat Muri 6-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de la Maladière in Neuchâtel.