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Neuchâtel Xamax II vs Concordia Basel — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Neuchâtel Xamax II
Neuchâtel Xamax II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
5/20/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Stade de la Maladière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Neuchâtel Xamax II45%
×Draw21%
Concordia Basel34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neuchâtel Xamax II
2.12
Concordia Basel
1.83

Neuchâtel Xamax II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Neuchâtel Xamax II
2.47
Concordia Basel
1.93

allows per match

Neuchâtel Xamax II
1.73
Concordia Basel
1.77

finishing

Neuchâtel Xamax II+0.00on par
Concordia Basel+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchâtel Xamax II ↓

Concordia Basel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Neuchâtel Xamax II or draw
66%
Neuchâtel Xamax II or Concordia Basel
79%
Draw or Concordia Basel
55%

Winning margin

Neuchâtel Xamax II wins by 2+
26%
Concordia Basel wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Neuchâtel Xamax II 1+ goals
88%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 2+ goals
62%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 3+ goals
35%
Concordia Basel 1+ goals
84%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
54%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Neuchâtel Xamax II (draw refunded)
57%
Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchâtel Xamax II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Concordia Basel away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchâtel Xamax II attack 2.47 + Concordia Basel defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.12

Concordia Basel attack 1.93 + Neuchâtel Xamax II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Neuchâtel Xamax II scores more
45%
level
21%
Concordia Basel scores more
34%

Neuchâtel Xamax II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Neuchâtel Xamax II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neuchâtel Xamax II vs Concordia Basel

Concordia Basel beat Neuchâtel Xamax II 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Maladière in Neuchâtel.