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Neuchâtel Xamax II vs Black Stars — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Neuchâtel Xamax II
Neuchâtel Xamax II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Black Stars
Black Stars
11/5/20221. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stade de la Maladière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Neuchâtel Xamax II47%
×Draw21%
Black Stars32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neuchâtel Xamax II
2.16
Black Stars
1.75

Neuchâtel Xamax II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Neuchâtel Xamax II
2.47
Black Stars
1.77

allows per match

Neuchâtel Xamax II
1.73
Black Stars
1.85

finishing

Neuchâtel Xamax II+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchâtel Xamax II ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Neuchâtel Xamax II or draw
68%
Neuchâtel Xamax II or Black Stars
79%
Draw or Black Stars
53%

Winning margin

Neuchâtel Xamax II wins by 2+
28%
Black Stars wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Neuchâtel Xamax II 1+ goals
88%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 2+ goals
63%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 3+ goals
36%
Black Stars 1+ goals
83%
Black Stars 2+ goals
52%
Black Stars 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Neuchâtel Xamax II (draw refunded)
60%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchâtel Xamax II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Black Stars away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchâtel Xamax II attack 2.47 + Black Stars defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.16

Black Stars attack 1.77 + Neuchâtel Xamax II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Neuchâtel Xamax II scores more
47%
level
21%
Black Stars scores more
32%

Neuchâtel Xamax II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Neuchâtel Xamax II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neuchâtel Xamax II vs Black Stars

Black Stars beat Neuchâtel Xamax II 4-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de la Maladière in Neuchâtel.