Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs SC Kriens — Challenge League 2026

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
SC Kriens
SC Kriens
M. Camara 45+1'
B. Diomande 16'
L. Mulaj 2'
E. Rufener 64', 38'
7/24/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC49%
×Draw21%
SC Kriens29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neuchatel Xamax FC
2.06
SC Kriens
1.55

Neuchatel Xamax FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

creates per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.82
SC Kriens
1.70

allows per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.41
SC Kriens
2.30

finishing

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par
SC Kriens+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchatel Xamax FC ↓

SC Kriens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw
71%
Neuchatel Xamax FC or SC Kriens
79%
Draw or SC Kriens
51%

Winning margin

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
29%
SC Kriens wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
87%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
61%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
34%
SC Kriens 1+ goals
79%
SC Kriens 2+ goals
46%
SC Kriens 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
63%
SC Kriens (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

SC Kriens away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.82 + SC Kriens defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.06

SC Kriens attack 1.70 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
49%
level
21%
SC Kriens scores more
29%

Neuchatel Xamax FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Neuchatel Xamax FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
L. Mulaj↳ R. Bayard
12'
L. Mulaj
16'
B. Diomande
31'
J. Fontana
32'
E. Rufener
37'
L. Romano
38'
E. Rufener
45+1'
M. Camara↳ B. Diomande
46'
M. Willimann← L. Riedmann
46'
M. Ishuayed← L. Romano
56'
A. Krasniqi
61'
A. Mossi← U. Likar
61'
N. Garcia← L. Mulaj
64'
E. Rufener↳ M. Ishuayed
65'
N. Siegrist← E. Rufener
65'
M. Akahomen← K. Trondle
69'
72'
J. Luthi← V. Nvendo
73'
D. Carraco← B. Diomande
77'
L. Sliskovic
78'
C. Wicht← L. Sliskovic
88'
N. Gunnarsson← J. Fontana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Challenge League: Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–2 SC Kriens

Neuchatel Xamax FC beat SC Kriens 3-2 in Challenge League on July 24, 2026.

Goals: L. Mulaj (2'), B. Diomande (16'), E. Rufener (38', 64'), M. Camara (45+1').