Netherlands W 2–1 Finland W: Result & Stats

Netherlands W

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Finland W

V. Miedema 30', 11'

O. Siren 90'

6/26/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesKooi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Netherlands W64%

×Draw20%

Finland W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands WExpected goals in this matchFinland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.98

Netherlands W

2.16

Finland W

0.98

Netherlands W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

3.19

creates per match

1.25

0.71

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Netherlands W

3.19

Finland W

1.25

allows per match

Netherlands W

0.71

Finland W

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands W+0.00on par

Finland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands W ↓

Finland W →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Netherlands W or draw

84%

Netherlands W or Finland W

80%

Draw or Finland W

36%

Winning margin

Netherlands W wins by 2+

40%

Finland W wins by 2+

Team goals

Netherlands W 1+ goals

88%

Netherlands W 2+ goals

63%

Netherlands W 3+ goals

36%

Finland W 1+ goals

62%

Finland W 2+ goals

26%

Finland W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Netherlands W (draw refunded)

80%

Finland W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Netherlands W at home — creates 3.19, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Finland W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands W attack 3.19 + Finland W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.16

Finland W attack 1.25 + Netherlands W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Netherlands W scores more

64%

level

20%

Finland W scores more

16%

Netherlands W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Netherlands W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

V. Miedema↳ D. van de Donk

18'

30'

62'

62'

67'

L. Halttunen← L. Sallstrom

76'

E. Peuhkurinen← R. Oling

79'

E. Siren

85'

A. Kroger← S. Franssi

89'

C. Dijkstra← V. Buurman

89'

L. Wilms← K. Casparij

89'

D. Egurrola← W. Kaptein

89'

R. Jansen← D. van de Donk

90'

O. Siren↳ N. Kuikka

Netherlands

Finland

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Miedema

▼

Donk

Roord

62'▲S. Spitse←▼E. Brugts

62'▲C. Grant←▼V. Miedema

89'▲C. Dijkstra←▼V. Buurman

89'▲L. Wilms←▼K. Casparij

89'▲D. Egurrola←▼W. Kaptein

89'▲R. Jansen←▼D. van de Donk

Netherlands W substitutes

16Kop23Jong26Eijk3Dijkstra27Doorn2Wilms22Zanden24Baijings21Egurrola8Spitse12Grant13Jansen5Leuchter15Snoeijs25Sanden

Manager: Marko Saloranta

67'▲L. Halttunen←▼L. Sallstrom

76'▲E. Peuhkurinen←▼R. Oling

85'▲A. Kroger←▼S. Franssi

Finland W substitutes

23Korpela12Tamminen19Hartikainen11Heroum26Roth6Tynnila8Ahtinen2Koivisto25Peuhkurinen7Engman24Halttunen14Kollanen27Kroger22Rantala21Sevenius