Netherlands W 5–0 Australia W: Result & Stats

Netherlands W

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Australia W

D. van de Donk 70'

L. Beerensteyn 67'

J. Groenen 27'

L. Martens 20'

J. Roord 5'

4/13/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Goffertstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Netherlands W73%

×Draw16%

Australia W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands WExpected goals in this matchAustralia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

0.94

Netherlands W

2.65

Australia W

0.94

Netherlands W creates 182% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

3.19

creates per match

1.17

0.71

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Netherlands W

3.19

Australia W

1.17

allows per match

Netherlands W

0.71

Australia W

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands W+0.00on par

Australia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands W ↓

Australia W →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Netherlands W or draw

89%

Netherlands W or Australia W

84%

Draw or Australia W

27%

Winning margin

Netherlands W wins by 2+

52%

Australia W wins by 2+

Team goals

Netherlands W 1+ goals

93%

Netherlands W 2+ goals

74%

Netherlands W 3+ goals

48%

Australia W 1+ goals

61%

Australia W 2+ goals

24%

Australia W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Netherlands W (draw refunded)

87%

Australia W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Netherlands W at home — creates 3.19, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Australia W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands W attack 3.19 + Australia W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.65

Australia W attack 1.17 + Netherlands W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Netherlands W scores more

73%

level

16%

Australia W scores more

11%

Netherlands W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Netherlands W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

J. Roord↳ V. Miedema

20'

L. Martens↳ D. van de Donk

27'

J. Groenen↳ V. Miedema

46'

L. Beerensteyn← S. Spitse

46'

D. Holmes← M. Fowler

62'

K. van Es← D. Janssen

62'

E. Gielnik← H. Raso

67'

L. Beerensteyn↳ L. Martens

70'

D. van de Donk

73'

K. Snoeijs← V. Miedema

79'

E. Mastrantonio← L. Alleway

82'

R. Jansen← L. Martens

82'

S. Folkertsma← J. Groenen

Netherlands

Australia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽A

⚽

▼

Groenen

⚽

Roord

⚽A

▼

Martens

▼

Miedema

Manager: S. Wiegman

46'▲L. Beerensteyn←▼S. Spitse

62'▲K. van Es←▼D. Janssen

73'▲K. Snoeijs←▼V. Miedema

82'▲R. Jansen←▼L. Martens

82'▲S. Folkertsma←▼J. Groenen

Netherlands W substitutes

21Beerensteyn5Es17Snoeijs13Jansen18Folkertsma15Baijings6Dekker23Geurts12Pelova7Sanden16Domselaar22Kaagman

Manager: T. Gustavsson

46'▲D. Holmes←▼M. Fowler

62'▲E. Gielnik←▼H. Raso

79'▲E. Mastrantonio←▼L. Alleway

Australia W substitutes

11Holmes15Gielnik19Mastrantonio1Williams12Riley8Sayer2Huynh

Friendlies Women: Netherlands W 5–0 Australia W

Netherlands W beat Australia W 5-0 in Friendlies Women on April 13, 2021.

Goals: J. Roord (5'), L. Martens (20'), J. Groenen (27'), L. Beerensteyn (67'), D. van de Donk (70').

The match was played at Goffertstadion in Nijmegen.

Netherlands W vs Australia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Netherlands W 5–0 Australia W