Netherlands 1–1 Poland: Result & Stats | League #32

Netherlands

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Poland

D. Dumfries 28'

M. Cash 80'

9/4/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 5De Kuip

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Netherlands56%

×Draw22%

Poland23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NetherlandsExpected goals in this matchPoland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.20

Netherlands

2.00

Poland

1.20

Netherlands creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

0.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Netherlands

3.00

Poland

2.00

allows per match

Netherlands

0.40

Poland

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands+0.00on par

Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands ↓

Poland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Netherlands or draw

77%

Netherlands or Poland

78%

Draw or Poland

44%

Winning margin

Netherlands wins by 2+

33%

Poland wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Netherlands 1+ goals

86%

Netherlands 2+ goals

59%

Netherlands 3+ goals

32%

Poland 1+ goals

70%

Poland 2+ goals

34%

Poland 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Netherlands (draw refunded)

71%

Poland (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Poland away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands attack 3.00 + Poland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Poland attack 2.00 + Netherlands defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Netherlands scores more

56%

level

22%

Poland scores more

23%

Netherlands at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Netherlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Dumfries

Netherlands · D

8.0

Match Events

28'

D. Dumfries↳ M. Depay

64'

K. Swiderski← R. Lewandowski

71'

B. Kapustka← P. Zielinski

71'

K. Grosicki← S. Szymanski

71'

P. Wszolek← N. Zalewski

78'

W. Weghorst← M. Depay

79'

D. Malen← X. Simons

80'

M. Cash

83'

Q. Timber← F. de Jong

84'

J. Kluivert← T. Reijnders

84'

T. Kedziora← P. Wisniewski

87'

S. de Vrij← J. P. van Hecke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NetherlandsPoland

Overview

74%Possession26%

14Total Shots6

0.72Expected Goals (xG)0.25

7Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots6

5On Target2

4Off Target3

5Blocked1

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

714Total Passes245

670Accurate Passes187

94%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls11

5Offsides2