Netherlands 4–0 Iceland: Result & Stats

Netherlands

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Iceland

W. Weghorst 90+3'

D. Malen 79'

V. van Dijk 49'

X. Simons 23'

6/10/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Feijenoord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Netherlands59%

×Draw23%

Iceland18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NetherlandsExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.88

Netherlands

1.78

Iceland

0.88

Netherlands creates 102% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

2.00

creates per match

0.88

0.87

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Netherlands

2.00

Iceland

0.88

allows per match

Netherlands

0.87

Iceland

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Netherlands or draw

82%

Netherlands or Iceland

77%

Draw or Iceland

41%

Winning margin

Netherlands wins by 2+

33%

Iceland wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Netherlands 1+ goals

83%

Netherlands 2+ goals

53%

Netherlands 3+ goals

26%

Iceland 1+ goals

59%

Iceland 2+ goals

22%

Iceland 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Netherlands (draw refunded)

76%

Iceland (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands attack 2.00 + Iceland defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Iceland attack 0.88 + Netherlands defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Netherlands scores more

59%

level

23%

Iceland scores more

18%

Netherlands at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Netherlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Malen

Netherlands · F

8.5

Match Events

23'

X. Simons↳ D. Dumfries

46'

S. Þórðarson← A. Traustason

49'

V. van Dijk↳ N. Aké

62'

Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson← J. Þorsteinsson

62'

A. Sigurðsson← M. Anderson

66'

G. Wijnaldum← J. Schouten

66'

M. van de Ven← N. Aké

75'

D. Malen← C. Gakpo

76'

L. Geertruida← D. Dumfries

76'

J. Frimpong← X. Simons

79'

D. Malen↳ M. Depay

82'

Memphis DepayGoal cancelled

84'

W. Weghorst← M. Depay

84'

K. Hlynsson← H. Haraldsson

84'

B. Bjarnason← S. Ingason

90+3'

Wout WeghorstGoal confirmed

90+3'

W. Weghorst↳ D. Malen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NetherlandsIceland

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots3

8Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots3

8On Target1

11Off Target1

3Blocked1

17Inside Box1

5Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

482Total Passes379

431Accurate Passes320

89%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Offsides1

Friendlies: Netherlands 4–0 Iceland

Netherlands beat Iceland 4-0 in Friendlies on June 10, 2024.

Goals: X. Simons (23'), V. van Dijk (49'), D. Malen (79'), W. Weghorst (90+3').

Netherlands controlled possession (56%) and registered 22 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stadion Feijenoord in Rotterdam.

Netherlands vs Iceland — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Netherlands 4–0 Iceland