Netherlands 1–1 England: Result & Stats

Netherlands

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

England

Quincy Promes 114'

Kyle Walker 97' (OG)

Matthijs De Ligt 73'

Marcus Rashford 32' (pen)

6/6/2019

UEFA Nations League · Semi-finalsEstádio D. Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Netherlands45%

×Draw25%

England29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NetherlandsExpected goals in this matchEngland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.17

Netherlands

1.52

England

1.17

Netherlands creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.31

creates per match

1.18

1.15

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Netherlands

2.31

England

1.18

allows per match

Netherlands

1.15

England

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands+0.00on par

England+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands ↓

England →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Netherlands or draw

71%

Netherlands or England

75%

Draw or England

55%

Winning margin

Netherlands wins by 2+

23%

England wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Netherlands 1+ goals

78%

Netherlands 2+ goals

45%

Netherlands 3+ goals

20%

England 1+ goals

69%

England 2+ goals

33%

England 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Netherlands (draw refunded)

61%

England (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

England away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands attack 2.31 + England defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

England attack 1.18 + Netherlands defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Netherlands scores more

45%

level

25%

England scores more

29%

Netherlands at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Netherlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jordan Pickford

England · G

8.0

Match Events

30'

Matthijs De Ligt

32'

Marcus RashfordPenalty

44'

Denzel Dumfries

46'

Harry Kane← Marcus Rashford

61'

Jesse Lingard← Jadon Sancho

68'

Donny van de Beek← Marten de Roon

68'

Quincy Promes← Ryan Babel

70'

Harry Kane

73'

Matthijs De Ligt↳ Memphis Depay

77'

Jordan Henderson← Fabian Delph

90'

Davy Pröpper← Steven Bergwijn

97'

Kyle WalkerOwn goal

105'

Dele Alli← Declan Rice

106'

Donny van de Beek

114'

Quincy Promes↳ Memphis Depay

114'

Kevin Strootman← Frenkie de Jong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NetherlandsEngland

Overview

53%Possession47%

29Total Shots13

7Corners4

19Fouls15

Shots

29Total Shots13

14On Target3

7Off Target4

8Blocked6

15Inside Box8

14Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

659Total Passes573

568Accurate Passes487

86%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

19Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides6