Netherlands 5–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina

Netherlands

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Bosnia & Herzegovina

X. Simons 90+2'

W. Weghorst 88'

C. Gakpo 56'

T. Reijnders 45+2'

J. Zirkzee 13'

E. Džeko 73'

E. Demirović 27'

9/7/2024

UEFA Nations League · League A - 1Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Netherlands67%

×Draw18%

Bosnia & Herzegovina14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NetherlandsExpected goals in this matchBosnia & Herzegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.98

Netherlands

2.33

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0.98

Netherlands creates 138% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.31

creates per match

0.82

1.15

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Netherlands

2.31

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0.82

allows per match

Netherlands

1.15

Bosnia & Herzegovina

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands+0.00on par

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Netherlands or draw

86%

Netherlands or Bosnia & Herzegovina

82%

Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina

33%

Winning margin

Netherlands wins by 2+

44%

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Netherlands 1+ goals

90%

Netherlands 2+ goals

67%

Netherlands 3+ goals

41%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

62%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

26%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Netherlands (draw refunded)

82%

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands attack 2.31 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.33

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 0.82 + Netherlands defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Netherlands scores more

67%

level

18%

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

14%

Netherlands at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Netherlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Zirkzee

Netherlands · F

8.6

Match Events

13'

J. Zirkzee

27'

E. Demirović↳ D. Huseinbašić

45+2'

T. Reijnders↳ J. Zirkzee

46'

R. Krunić← B. Tahirović

56'

C. Gakpo↳ T. Reijnders

66'

J. Timber← N. Aké

66'

D. Malen← C. Gakpo

67'

L. Geertruida← D. Dumfries

68'

E. Bajraktarević← D. Huseinbašić

68'

D. Burnić← N. Mujakić

69'

D. Šarić← A. Gigović

73'

E. Džeko↳ E. Bajraktarević

74'

W. Weghorst← J. Zirkzee

76'

Ermedin Demirović

83'

Q. Timber← J. Schouten

83'

H. Tabaković← E. Demirović

86'

Jusuf Gazibegović

88'

W. Weghorst

90+2'

X. Simons↳ D. Malen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NetherlandsBosnia

Overview

75%Possession25%

28Total Shots4

10Corners1

10Fouls15

Shots

28Total Shots4

9On Target3

8Off Target1

11Blocked0

20Inside Box4

8Outside Box0

Passing

75%Possession25%

715Total Passes236

659Accurate Passes162

92%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1