Netherlands 4–0 Belarus: Result & Stats

Netherlands

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Belarus

V. van Dijk 86'

M. Depay 55' (pen), 1'

G. Wijnaldum 21'

3/21/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion Feijenoord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Netherlands66%

×Draw19%

Belarus15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NetherlandsExpected goals in this matchBelarus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.95

Netherlands

2.25

Belarus

0.95

Netherlands creates 137% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.10

creates per match

0.60

1.30

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Netherlands

2.10

Belarus

0.60

allows per match

Netherlands

1.30

Belarus

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands+0.00on par

Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands ↓

Belarus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Netherlands or draw

85%

Netherlands or Belarus

81%

Draw or Belarus

34%

Winning margin

Netherlands wins by 2+

43%

Belarus wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Netherlands 1+ goals

89%

Netherlands 2+ goals

65%

Netherlands 3+ goals

39%

Belarus 1+ goals

61%

Belarus 2+ goals

25%

Belarus 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Netherlands (draw refunded)

82%

Belarus (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Belarus away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands attack 2.10 + Belarus defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.25

Belarus attack 0.60 + Netherlands defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Netherlands scores more

66%

level

19%

Belarus scores more

15%

Netherlands at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Netherlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Depay

Netherlands · F

9.4

Match Events

1'

M. Depay

21'

G. Wijnaldum↳ M. Depay

30'

Stanislav Dragun

32'

Anton Putsila

34'

Marten de Roon

46'

D. Pröpper← M. de Roon

55'

M. DepayPenalty

59'

Q. Promes← R. Babel

63'

A. Saroka← N. Signevich

68'

K. Tete← D. Dumfries

79'

P. Savitskiy← Y. Kovalev

86'

V. van Dijk↳ M. Depay

87'

D. Laptev← S. Dragun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NetherlandsBelarus

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots8

3Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots8

6On Target1

4Off Target3

0Blocked4

8Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

643Total Passes389

567Accurate Passes304

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1