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Netherlands U23 W vs Italy U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Netherlands U23 W
Netherlands U23 W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Italy U23 W
Italy U23 W
10/23/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Netherlands U23 W43%
×Draw25%
Italy U23 W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U23 W
1.58
Italy U23 W
1.33

Netherlands U23 W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Netherlands U23 W
2.00
Italy U23 W
1.67

allows per match

Netherlands U23 W
1.00
Italy U23 W
1.17

finishing

Netherlands U23 W+0.00on par
Italy U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U23 W ↓

Italy U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Netherlands U23 W or draw
68%
Netherlands U23 W or Italy U23 W
75%
Draw or Italy U23 W
57%

Winning margin

Netherlands U23 W wins by 2+
22%
Italy U23 W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Netherlands U23 W 1+ goals
79%
Netherlands U23 W 2+ goals
47%
Netherlands U23 W 3+ goals
21%
Italy U23 W 1+ goals
74%
Italy U23 W 2+ goals
38%
Italy U23 W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U23 W (draw refunded)
57%
Italy U23 W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U23 W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Italy U23 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U23 W attack 2.00 + Italy U23 W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Italy U23 W attack 1.67 + Netherlands U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Netherlands U23 W scores more
43%
level
25%
Italy U23 W scores more
32%

Netherlands U23 W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Netherlands U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Netherlands U23 W vs Italy U23 W

Netherlands U23 W and Italy U23 W drew 2-2 in Friendlies Women on October 23, 2025.