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Netherlands U21 vs Norway U21 — Friendlies 2018

Netherlands U21
Netherlands U21
FT
1 – 2
Norway U21
Norway U21
3/21/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Netherlands U2145%
×Draw29%
Norway U2126%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U21
1.25
Norway U21
0.88

Netherlands U21 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Netherlands U21
1.25
Norway U21
1.00

allows per match

Netherlands U21
0.75
Norway U21
1.25

finishing

Netherlands U21+0.00on par
Norway U21+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U21 ↓

Norway U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Netherlands U21 or draw
74%
Netherlands U21 or Norway U21
71%
Draw or Norway U21
55%

Winning margin

Netherlands U21 wins by 2+
20%
Norway U21 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Netherlands U21 1+ goals
71%
Netherlands U21 2+ goals
36%
Netherlands U21 3+ goals
13%
Norway U21 1+ goals
59%
Norway U21 2+ goals
22%
Norway U21 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U21 (draw refunded)
63%
Norway U21 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U21 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Norway U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U21 attack 1.25 + Norway U21 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Norway U21 attack 1.00 + Netherlands U21 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Netherlands U21 scores more
45%
level
29%
Norway U21 scores more
26%

Netherlands U21 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Netherlands U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Netherlands U21 1–2 Norway U21

Norway U21 beat Netherlands U21 2-1 in Friendlies on March 21, 2024.