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Netherlands U19 W vs England U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Netherlands U19 W
Netherlands U19 W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
England U19 W
England U19 W
J. van Hensbergen 68'
P. Ademiluyi 20'
2/26/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Netherlands U19 W42%
×Draw28%
England U19 W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U19 W
1.25
England U19 W
1.00

Netherlands U19 W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Netherlands U19 W
0.50
England U19 W
1.00

allows per match

Netherlands U19 W
1.00
England U19 W
2.00

finishing

Netherlands U19 W+0.00on par
England U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 W ↓

England U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 W or draw
70%
Netherlands U19 W or England U19 W
72%
Draw or England U19 W
58%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 W wins by 2+
19%
England U19 W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 W 1+ goals
71%
Netherlands U19 W 2+ goals
36%
Netherlands U19 W 3+ goals
13%
England U19 W 1+ goals
63%
England U19 W 2+ goals
26%
England U19 W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 W (draw refunded)
59%
England U19 W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

England U19 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 W attack 0.50 + England U19 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

England U19 W attack 1.00 + Netherlands U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Netherlands U19 W scores more
42%
level
28%
England U19 W scores more
30%

Netherlands U19 W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Netherlands U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
P. Ademiluyi
68'
J. van Hensbergen
Netherlands
England
Roos Kwakkenbos
Manager: Roos Kwakkenbos
Lauren Anna Smith
Manager: Lauren Anna Smith

Match Recap: Netherlands U19 W vs England U19 W

Netherlands U19 W and England U19 W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on February 26, 2025.

Goals: P. Ademiluyi (20'), J. van Hensbergen (68').