Netherlands U19 1–0 Ukraine U19: Result & Stats

Netherlands U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ukraine U19

A. Sliti 39'

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Gjaltema Stadion aan De Langeleegte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Netherlands U1943%

×Draw25%

Ukraine U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchUkraine U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.32

Netherlands U19

1.56

Ukraine U19

1.32

Netherlands U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

1.95

creates per match

2.00

0.65

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Netherlands U19

1.95

Ukraine U19

2.00

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.65

Ukraine U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Ukraine U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Ukraine U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

68%

Netherlands U19 or Ukraine U19

75%

Draw or Ukraine U19

57%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

21%

Ukraine U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

79%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

46%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

21%

Ukraine U19 1+ goals

73%

Ukraine U19 2+ goals

38%

Ukraine U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Ukraine U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ukraine U19 attack 2.00 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

43%

level

25%

Ukraine U19 scores more

32%

Netherlands U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

21'

39'

46'

46'

46'

O. Raterink← E. Dijkstra

46'

O. Pshenychniuk← A. Husol

52'

T. Land

59'

D. Konadu← J. Bergraaf

63'

K. Shevchenko← O. Lomaha

63'

V. Tsukanov← K. Osypenko

81'

T. Braem← T. Land

81'

D. Vernattus← M. Len

86'

K. Shevchenko

Netherlands

Ukraine

23

6

4

2

14

8

▼

Osypenko

10

Synchuk

11

▼

Husol

21

▼

Len

17

▼

Lomaha

19

Dihtiar

1

Heerkens

5

▼

4

8

3

21

▼

Bouland

10

▼

Smit

20

Oerip

6

▼

Land

11

⚽

Sliti

9

▼

Bergraaf

Manager: P. van der Veen

46'▲A. Oufkir←▼K. Smit

46'▲M. Rots←▼S. Bouland

46'▲O. Raterink←▼E. Dijkstra

59'▲D. Konadu←▼J. Bergraaf

81'▲T. Braem←▼T. Land

Netherlands U19 substitutes

7Oufkir12Rots19Raterink15Konadu18Braem2Read16Ka14Ban17Redmond

Manager: D. Mykhailenko

46'▲O. Pshenychniuk←▼A. Husol

63'▲K. Shevchenko←▼O. Lomaha

63'▲V. Tsukanov←▼K. Osypenko

81'▲D. Vernattus←▼M. Len

Ukraine U19 substitutes

16Pshenychniuk7Shevchenko22Tsukanov20Vernattus15Dykyi9Ponomarenko5Shershen1Surkis18Baumann