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Netherlands U19 vs Switzerland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Netherlands U19
Netherlands U19
CANC
14:00
Switzerland U19
Switzerland U19
9/5/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 4Sportpark de Bosk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Netherlands U1975%
×Draw15%
Switzerland U1910%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U19
2.69
Switzerland U19
0.88

Netherlands U19 creates 206% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Netherlands U19
4.13
Switzerland U19
1.00

allows per match

Netherlands U19
0.75
Switzerland U19
1.25

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par
Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw
90%
Netherlands U19 or Switzerland U19
85%
Draw or Switzerland U19
25%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+
54%
Switzerland U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals
93%
Netherlands U19 2+ goals
74%
Netherlands U19 3+ goals
49%
Switzerland U19 1+ goals
59%
Switzerland U19 2+ goals
22%
Switzerland U19 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)
88%
Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 4.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 4.13 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.69

Switzerland U19 attack 1.00 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more
75%
level
15%
Switzerland U19 scores more
10%

Netherlands U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Netherlands U19 vs Switzerland U19 — Match Preview

Netherlands U19 face Switzerland U19 on September 5, 2020 in this UEFA U19 Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Netherlands U19 host Switzerland U19 at Sportpark de Bosk.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.