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Netherlands U19 vs Serbia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Netherlands U19
Netherlands U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Serbia U19
Serbia U19
6/1/2022UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Netherlands U1950%
×Draw24%
Serbia U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U19
1.76
Serbia U19
1.22

Netherlands U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

Netherlands U19
1.95
Serbia U19
1.79

allows per match

Netherlands U19
0.65
Serbia U19
1.57

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par
Serbia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Serbia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw
73%
Netherlands U19 or Serbia U19
76%
Draw or Serbia U19
50%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+
27%
Serbia U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals
83%
Netherlands U19 2+ goals
52%
Netherlands U19 3+ goals
26%
Serbia U19 1+ goals
70%
Serbia U19 2+ goals
34%
Serbia U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Serbia U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Serbia U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Serbia U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.76

Serbia U19 attack 1.79 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more
50%
level
24%
Serbia U19 scores more
27%

Netherlands U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 1–2 Serbia U19

Serbia U19 beat Netherlands U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.