Netherlands U19 1–1 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Netherlands U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Norway U19

G. Caschili 9'

A. Schjelderup 62'

6/4/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Sportcomplex Varkenoord 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Netherlands U1951%

×Draw24%

Norway U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.11

Netherlands U19

1.69

Norway U19

1.11

Netherlands U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

1.95

creates per match

1.57

0.65

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Netherlands U19

1.95

Norway U19

1.57

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.65

Norway U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Norway U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

75%

Netherlands U19 or Norway U19

76%

Draw or Norway U19

49%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

27%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

82%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

50%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

24%

Norway U19 1+ goals

67%

Norway U19 2+ goals

30%

Norway U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Norway U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.69

Norway U19 attack 1.57 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

51%

level

24%

Norway U19 scores more

25%

Netherlands U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Benita

9'

G. Caschili

46'

D. Karlsbakk← B. Fiabema

46'

M. Bauer← S. Jatta

51'

C. Zafeiris

60'

B. Strijdonck← E. Poku

60'

60'

62'

67'

72'

72'

R. Hillen← J. Dirksen

81'

81'

82'

86'

90+2'

90+2'

90+2'

M. Løvik← A. Schjelderup

Netherlands

Norway

12

Ree

6

Hopland

10

▼

17

18

20

7

⚽

▼

Schjelder

16

Emilsen

11

▼

Wassberg

9

▼

Fiabema

19

▼

Jatta

1

Roefs

5

▼

Dirksen

4

Hubner

10

⚽

▼

Caschili

8

▼

3

6

7

2

11

▼

Poku

17

▼

Houben

Manager: B. Konterman

60'▲B. Strijdonck←▼E. Poku

60'▲J. Bynoe←▼M. Jiménez

60'▲T. Zaal←▼G. Caschili

67'▲D. Haen←▼I. Houben

72'▲R. Hillen←▼J. Dirksen

Netherlands U19 substitutes

20Strijdonck13Bynoe15Zaal18Haen14Hillen16Heuvel12Limouri9Nassoh19Rijks

Manager: R. Teigen

46'▲D. Karlsbakk←▼B. Fiabema

46'▲M. Bauer←▼S. Jatta

81'▲J. Eng←▼N. Wassberg

81'▲N. Ødegård←▼O. Bobb

90+2'▲M. Løvik←▼A. Schjelderup

Norway U19 substitutes

15Karlsbakk2Bauer14Eng13Ødegård5Løvik4Frobenius1Solberg3Johansen

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 1–1 Norway U19

Netherlands U19 and Norway U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on June 4, 2022.

Goals: G. Caschili (9'), A. Schjelderup (62').

The match was played at Sportcomplex Varkenoord 1 in Rotterdam.

Netherlands U19 vs Norway U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 1–1 Norway U19