Netherlands U19 0–0 Northern Ireland U19

Netherlands U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Ireland U19

9/24/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Sportpark Marsdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Netherlands U1956%

×Draw27%

Northern Ireland U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.66

Netherlands U19

1.44

Northern Ireland U19

0.66

Netherlands U19 creates 118% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

1.95

creates per match

0.67

0.65

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Netherlands U19

1.95

Northern Ireland U19

0.67

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.65

Northern Ireland U19

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Northern Ireland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

83%

Netherlands U19 or Northern Ireland U19

73%

Draw or Northern Ireland U19

44%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

28%

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

76%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

42%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

18%

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

48%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

14%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Northern Ireland U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.44

Northern Ireland U19 attack 0.67 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

56%

level

27%

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

17%

Netherlands U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

B. Strijdonck

62'

M. Carson

68'

E. Poku← D. Haen

68'

I. Houben← J. Banel

68'

T. Zaal← P. Brittijn

81'

L. Schouten← D. Kwakman

81'

C. Marshall← S. Glenfield

81'

88'

89'

90+4'

90+4'

Netherlands

Northern

12

2

5

3

13

14

10

6

8

▼

Sloan

19

▼

Glenfield

11

▼

1

19

8

4

15

▼

Aning

14

▼

Brittijn

13

Dundas

12

▼

Kwakman

9

▼

Haen

20

Strijdonc

17

▼

Banel

Manager: M. Reuser

68'▲E. Poku←▼D. Haen

68'▲I. Houben←▼J. Banel

68'▲T. Zaal←▼P. Brittijn

81'▲L. Schouten←▼D. Kwakman

88'▲K. Jansen←▼P. Aning

Netherlands U19 substitutes

11Poku7Houben6Zaal10Schouten5Jansen18Berg2Dekkers16Graaff3Goes

Manager: G. Lyttle

81'▲C. Marshall←▼S. Glenfield

81'▲R. Morgan←▼M. Kirk

89'▲P. Kelly←▼D. Sloan

Northern Ireland U19 substitutes

9Marshall18Morgan17Kelly15Wightman7Lindsay1Clarke16Trickett20Evans4McConville

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 0–0 Northern Ireland U19

Netherlands U19 and Northern Ireland U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Marsdijk in Assen.

Netherlands U19 vs Northern Ireland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 0–0 Northern Ireland U19