Netherlands U19 4–0 North Macedonia U19

Netherlands U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

North Macedonia U19

P. Reulen 87', 53', 8'

J. Beerens 13'

3/28/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League B - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Netherlands U1967%

×Draw20%

North Macedonia U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.79

Netherlands U19

2.08

North Macedonia U19

0.79

Netherlands U19 creates 163% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

1.95

creates per match

0.93

0.65

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Netherlands U19

1.95

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.65

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

87%

Netherlands U19 or North Macedonia U19

80%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

33%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

42%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

87%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

61%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

34%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

55%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

19%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

84%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.08

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

67%

level

20%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

13%

Netherlands U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

P. Reulen↳ J. Beerens

13'

J. Beerens

17'

D. Bucevski← A. Dimovski

46'

M. Hoop← J. Beerens

46'

S. Brankovski← I. Tanchev

46'

F. Ilazi← B. Velkov

53'

P. Reulen

58'

I. Markovski← J. Mrmachovski

60'

T. Romers← R. van Asten

60'

S. Roovers← R. Nijstad

65'

A. Rochi← K. Markoski

67'

R. Metu← S. Cornecion

77'

A. Nahany← F. Merien

87'

P. Reulen↳ M. Hoop

Netherlands

North

1

Trajkov

2

▼

6

4

3

15

5

▼

Dimovski

10

Angelevsk

17

▼

Mrmachovs

20

▼

Tanchev

16

▼

1

2

12

4

▼

Nijstad

5

Zekri

15

▼

Asten

8

▼

Cornecion

3

▼

Merien

7

⚽A

▼

Beerens

9

⚽3

Reulen

11

Nash

Manager: Adil Ramzi

46'▲M. Hoop←▼J. Beerens

60'▲T. Romers←▼R. van Asten

60'▲S. Roovers←▼R. Nijstad

67'▲R. Metu←▼S. Cornecion

77'▲A. Nahany←▼F. Merien

Netherlands U19 substitutes

16Engel6Romers10Nahany14Roovers17Hoop18Metu19Onunta20Acheampong21Mparaganda

Manager: V. Stanojković

17'▲D. Bucevski←▼A. Dimovski

46'▲S. Brankovski←▼I. Tanchev

46'▲F. Ilazi←▼B. Velkov

58'▲I. Markovski←▼J. Mrmachovski

65'▲A. Rochi←▼K. Markoski

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

12Trajkovski7Bucevski8Zhaku9Hodja11Brankovski13Markovski14Rochi18Kasami19Ilazi

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 4–0 North Macedonia U19

Netherlands U19 beat North Macedonia U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2026.

Goals: P. Reulen (8', 53', 87'), J. Beerens (13').

Netherlands U19 vs North Macedonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 4–0 North Macedonia U19