Netherlands U19 4–0 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

Netherlands U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Lithuania U19

3/20/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Gjaltema Stadion aan De Langeleegte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Netherlands U1966%

×Draw21%

Lithuania U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.71

Netherlands U19

1.90

Lithuania U19

0.71

Netherlands U19 creates 168% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.95

creates per match

0.77

0.65

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Netherlands U19

1.95

Lithuania U19

0.77

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.65

Lithuania U19

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

87%

Netherlands U19 or Lithuania U19

79%

Draw or Lithuania U19

34%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

40%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

85%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

56%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

29%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

51%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

16%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.90

Lithuania U19 attack 0.77 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

66%

level

21%

Lithuania U19 scores more

13%

Netherlands U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Netherlands U19 vs Lithuania U19

Netherlands U19 beat Lithuania U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Gjaltema Stadion aan De Langeleegte in Veendam.

Netherlands U19 vs Lithuania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Netherlands U19 vs Lithuania U19