Netherlands U19 4–2 England U19: Result & Stats

Netherlands U19

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

England U19

Z. Redmond 69', 35'

L. Vennegoor of Hesselink 42'

K. Smit 22'

J. Derry 90'

E. Wheatley 52'

6/20/2025

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 3Superbet Arena-Giulești

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Netherlands U1972%

×Draw15%

England U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchEngland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

1.27

Netherlands U19

3.06

England U19

1.27

Netherlands U19 creates 141% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

4.13

creates per match

1.78

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Netherlands U19

4.13

England U19

1.78

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.75

England U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

England U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

England U19 →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

87%

Netherlands U19 or England U19

85%

Draw or England U19

28%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

53%

England U19 wins by 2+

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

95%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

80%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

57%

England U19 1+ goals

72%

England U19 2+ goals

36%

England U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

85%

England U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 4.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

England U19 away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 4.13 + England U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.06

England U19 attack 1.78 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

72%

level

15%

England U19 scores more

13%

Netherlands U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

K. Smit↳ K. Boogaard

35'

Z. Redmond↳ G. Read

42'

L. Vennegoor of Hesselink

44'

S. van Aarle

52'

E. Wheatley↳ K. Young

63'

T. Land

65'

T. Braem← T. Land

65'

A. Oufkir← K. Smit

65'

S. van der Plas← P. Ugwu

66'

E. Dijkstra← G. Read

69'

Z. Redmond↳ M. Rots

77'

K. Young

77'

D. Janse← S. van Aarle

77'

J. Derry← T. Watson

84'

J. Oboavwoduo← E. Wheatley

90'

J. Derry↳ S. Mheuka

Netherlands

England

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Peter van der Veen

65'▲T. Braem←▼T. Land

65'▲A. Oufkir←▼K. Smit

65'▲S. van der Plas←▼P. Ugwu

66'▲E. Dijkstra←▼G. Read

77'▲D. Janse←▼S. van Aarle

Netherlands U19 substitutes

4Janse5Dijkstra20Braem7Oufkir13Plas9Konadu8Verkuijl16Zeggen11Sliti

Manager: Agyei William Kwabena Antwi

77'▲J. Derry←▼T. Watson

84'▲J. Oboavwoduo←▼E. Wheatley

England U19 substitutes

8Oboavwoduo19Derry14Murray-Campbell3Johnson7Amo-Ameyaw13Herrick11Moore2Rowe