Netherlands U19 2–1 Croatia U19: Result & Stats

Netherlands U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Croatia U19

M. Verkuijl 90+3'

A. Oufkir 17'

F. Živković 15'

3/19/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Stadion FK Chmel Blšany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Netherlands U1953%

×Draw25%

Croatia U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchCroatia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.94

Netherlands U19

1.63

Croatia U19

0.94

Netherlands U19 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.95

creates per match

1.23

0.65

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Netherlands U19

1.95

Croatia U19

1.23

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.65

Croatia U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Croatia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

78%

Netherlands U19 or Croatia U19

75%

Draw or Croatia U19

47%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

29%

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

80%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

48%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

22%

Croatia U19 1+ goals

61%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

24%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Croatia U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Croatia U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.63

Croatia U19 attack 1.23 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

53%

level

25%

Croatia U19 scores more

22%

Netherlands U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

S. van der Plas← P. Ugwu

15'

17'

48'

58'

67'

67'

L. Kulušić← N. Farkaš

68'

B. Durdov

68'

D. Janse

79'

A. Baždarić← B. Durdov

83'

L. Vennegoor of Hesselink← D. Konadu

83'

W. Bouziane← A. Sliti

90+3'

M. Verkuijl

Netherlands

Croatia

12

2

13

5

4

19

16

▼

Farkaš

10

▼

Skoko

6

Bošnjak

9

⚽

Živković

18

▼

1

2

5

8

4

3

▼

Ugwu

20

▼

Oerip

12

⚽

Verkuijl

11

▼

Sliti

9

▼

Konadu

7

⚽

Oufkir

Manager: P. van der Veen

9'▲S. van der Plas←▼P. Ugwu

67'▲Z. Redmond←▼J. Oerip

83'▲L. Vennegoor of Hesselink←▼D. Konadu

83'▲W. Bouziane←▼A. Sliti

Netherlands U19 substitutes

13Plas18Redmond19Hesselink17Bouziane16Ka15Boogaard14Aarle

Manager: S. Oreščanin

58'▲D. Reić←▼N. Skoko

67'▲L. Kulušić←▼N. Farkaš

79'▲A. Baždarić←▼B. Durdov

Croatia U19 substitutes

14Reić17Kulušić8Baždarić3Sušak20Mlačić7Babić15Đurković1Bezeljak