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Netherlands U19 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Netherlands U19
Netherlands U19
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
10/13/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Netherlands U1985%
×Draw10%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U195%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U19
3.23
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
0.71

Netherlands U19 creates 355% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Netherlands U19
4.13
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
0.67

allows per match

Netherlands U19
0.75
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
2.33

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw
95%
Netherlands U19 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
90%
Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
15%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+
67%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals
96%
Netherlands U19 2+ goals
82%
Netherlands U19 3+ goals
61%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals
51%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals
16%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)
94%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 4.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 4.13 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.23

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 0.67 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more
85%
level
10%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more
5%

Netherlands U19 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Netherlands U19 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

Netherlands U19 beat Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 6-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Eamonn Deacy Park in Galway.