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Netherlands U19 vs Azerbaijan U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Netherlands U19
Netherlands U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Azerbaijan U19
Azerbaijan U19
11/18/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Stade am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Netherlands U1974%
×Draw16%
Azerbaijan U1910%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U19
2.38
Azerbaijan U19
0.73

Netherlands U19 creates 226% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Netherlands U19
1.95
Azerbaijan U19
0.82

allows per match

Netherlands U19
0.65
Azerbaijan U19
2.82

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par
Azerbaijan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Azerbaijan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw
90%
Netherlands U19 or Azerbaijan U19
84%
Draw or Azerbaijan U19
26%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+
51%
Azerbaijan U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals
91%
Netherlands U19 2+ goals
68%
Netherlands U19 3+ goals
42%
Azerbaijan U19 1+ goals
52%
Azerbaijan U19 2+ goals
17%
Azerbaijan U19 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)
88%
Azerbaijan U19 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Azerbaijan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Azerbaijan U19 defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.38

Azerbaijan U19 attack 0.82 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more
74%
level
16%
Azerbaijan U19 scores more
10%

Netherlands U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Netherlands U19 vs Azerbaijan U19

Netherlands U19 beat Azerbaijan U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade am Petz in Weidingen.