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Netherlands U18 vs Poland U18 — Friendlies 2026

Netherlands U18
Netherlands U18
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Poland U18
Poland U18
10/13/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Netherlands U1844%
×Draw25%
Poland U1831%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U18
1.56
Poland U18
1.25

Netherlands U18 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Netherlands U18
2.33
Poland U18
1.00

allows per match

Netherlands U18
1.50
Poland U18
0.80

finishing

Netherlands U18+0.00on par
Poland U18+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U18 ↓

Poland U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Netherlands U18 or draw
69%
Netherlands U18 or Poland U18
75%
Draw or Poland U18
56%

Winning margin

Netherlands U18 wins by 2+
22%
Poland U18 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Netherlands U18 1+ goals
79%
Netherlands U18 2+ goals
46%
Netherlands U18 3+ goals
21%
Poland U18 1+ goals
71%
Poland U18 2+ goals
36%
Poland U18 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U18 (draw refunded)
59%
Poland U18 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U18 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Poland U18 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U18 attack 2.33 + Poland U18 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Poland U18 attack 1.00 + Netherlands U18 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Netherlands U18 scores more
44%
level
25%
Poland U18 scores more
31%

Netherlands U18 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Netherlands U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Netherlands U18 1–2 Poland U18

Poland U18 beat Netherlands U18 2-1 in Friendlies on October 13, 2025.