Netherlands U18 2–1 Germany U18: Result & Stats

Netherlands U18

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Germany U18

11/13/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Netherlands U1847%

×Draw25%

Germany U1828%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U18Expected goals in this matchGermany U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.15

Netherlands U18

1.56

Germany U18

1.15

Netherlands U18 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

0.80

1.50

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Netherlands U18

2.33

Germany U18

0.80

allows per match

Netherlands U18

1.50

Germany U18

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U18+0.00on par

Germany U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U18 ↓

Germany U18 →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Netherlands U18 or draw

72%

Netherlands U18 or Germany U18

75%

Draw or Germany U18

53%

Winning margin

Netherlands U18 wins by 2+

24%

Germany U18 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Netherlands U18 1+ goals

79%

Netherlands U18 2+ goals

46%

Netherlands U18 3+ goals

21%

Germany U18 1+ goals

68%

Germany U18 2+ goals

32%

Germany U18 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U18 (draw refunded)

62%

Germany U18 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U18 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Germany U18 away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U18 attack 2.33 + Germany U18 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Germany U18 attack 0.80 + Netherlands U18 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Netherlands U18 scores more

47%

level

25%

Germany U18 scores more

28%

Netherlands U18 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Netherlands U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff