Netherlands U18 1–2 England U18: Result & Stats

Netherlands U18

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

England U18

3/25/2024

Friendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Netherlands U1834%

×Draw22%

England U1844%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U18Expected goals in this matchEngland U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.92

Netherlands U18

1.67

England U18

1.92

England U18 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

2.33

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Netherlands U18

2.33

England U18

2.33

allows per match

Netherlands U18

1.50

England U18

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U18+0.00on par

England U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U18 ↓

England U18 →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Netherlands U18 or draw

56%

Netherlands U18 or England U18

78%

Draw or England U18

66%

Winning margin

Netherlands U18 wins by 2+

17%

England U18 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Netherlands U18 1+ goals

81%

Netherlands U18 2+ goals

50%

Netherlands U18 3+ goals

23%

England U18 1+ goals

85%

England U18 2+ goals

57%

England U18 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U18 (draw refunded)

44%

England U18 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U18 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

England U18 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U18 attack 2.33 + England U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

England U18 attack 2.33 + Netherlands U18 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Netherlands U18 scores more

34%

level

22%

England U18 scores more

44%

England U18 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "England U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff