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Netherlands U17 vs United States U17 — Friendlies 2026

Netherlands U17
Netherlands U17
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
United States U17
United States U17
K. Puati 58', 38'
10/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Netherlands U1778%
×Draw14%
United States U178%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U17
2.83
United States U17
0.83

Netherlands U17 creates 241% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Netherlands U17
3.33
United States U17
0.00

allows per match

Netherlands U17
1.67
United States U17
2.33

finishing

Netherlands U17+0.00on par
United States U17+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U17 ↓

United States U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Netherlands U17 or draw
92%
Netherlands U17 or United States U17
86%
Draw or United States U17
22%

Winning margin

Netherlands U17 wins by 2+
58%
United States U17 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Netherlands U17 1+ goals
94%
Netherlands U17 2+ goals
77%
Netherlands U17 3+ goals
53%
United States U17 1+ goals
56%
United States U17 2+ goals
20%
United States U17 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U17 (draw refunded)
90%
United States U17 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U17 at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

United States U17 away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U17 attack 3.33 + United States U17 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

United States U17 attack 0.00 + Netherlands U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Netherlands U17 scores more
78%
level
14%
United States U17 scores more
8%

Netherlands U17 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Netherlands U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
K. Puati
58'
K. Puati
Netherlands
United
P. van den Berg
Manager: P. van den Berg
G. Segares
Manager: G. Segares

Friendlies: Netherlands U17 2–0 United States U17

Netherlands U17 beat United States U17 2-0 in Friendlies on October 9, 2025.

Goals: K. Puati (38', 58').