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Netherlands U17 vs Serbia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship 2022

Netherlands U17
Netherlands U17advanced
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Serbia U17
Serbia U17
5/29/2022UEFA U17 ChampionshipUEFA U17 Championship · Semi-finalsNetanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Netherlands U1738%
×Draw22%
Serbia U1740%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U17
1.83
Serbia U17
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Netherlands U17
1.80
Serbia U17
2.14

allows per match

Netherlands U17
1.60
Serbia U17
1.86

finishing

Netherlands U17+0.00on par
Serbia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U17 ↓

Serbia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Netherlands U17 or draw
60%
Netherlands U17 or Serbia U17
78%
Draw or Serbia U17
62%

Winning margin

Netherlands U17 wins by 2+
20%
Serbia U17 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Netherlands U17 1+ goals
84%
Netherlands U17 2+ goals
54%
Netherlands U17 3+ goals
28%
Serbia U17 1+ goals
85%
Serbia U17 2+ goals
56%
Serbia U17 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U17 (draw refunded)
49%
Serbia U17 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U17 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Serbia U17 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U17 attack 1.80 + Serbia U17 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

Serbia U17 attack 2.14 + Netherlands U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Netherlands U17 scores more
38%
level
22%
Serbia U17 scores more
40%

Serbia U17 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Serbia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship: Netherlands U17 2–2 Serbia U17

Netherlands U17 and Serbia U17 drew 2-2 in UEFA U17 Championship on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.