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Netherlands U17 vs Poland U17 — UEFA U17 Championship 2022

Netherlands U17
Netherlands U17
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Poland U17
Poland U17
5/19/2022UEFA U17 ChampionshipUEFA U17 Championship · Group Stage - 3Lod Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Netherlands U1755%
×Draw20%
Poland U1725%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U17
2.33
Poland U17
1.52

Netherlands U17 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Netherlands U17
1.80
Poland U17
1.43

allows per match

Netherlands U17
1.60
Poland U17
2.86

finishing

Netherlands U17+0.00on par
Poland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U17 ↓

Poland U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Netherlands U17 or draw
75%
Netherlands U17 or Poland U17
80%
Draw or Poland U17
45%

Winning margin

Netherlands U17 wins by 2+
34%
Poland U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Netherlands U17 1+ goals
90%
Netherlands U17 2+ goals
67%
Netherlands U17 3+ goals
41%
Poland U17 1+ goals
78%
Poland U17 2+ goals
45%
Poland U17 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U17 (draw refunded)
69%
Poland U17 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U17 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Poland U17 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U17 attack 1.80 + Poland U17 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.33

Poland U17 attack 1.43 + Netherlands U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Netherlands U17 scores more
55%
level
20%
Poland U17 scores more
25%

Netherlands U17 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Netherlands U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Netherlands U17 vs Poland U17

Netherlands U17 beat Poland U17 2-1 in UEFA U17 Championship on May 19, 2022.

The match was played at Lod Municipal Stadium in Bnei-Lod.