Netherlands U17 2–1 Northern Ireland U17

Netherlands U17

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Northern Ireland U17

3/22/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Gemeentelijk Sportpark SJC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Netherlands U1761%

×Draw20%

Northern Ireland U1719%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U17Expected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.10

Netherlands U17

2.15

Northern Ireland U17

1.10

Netherlands U17 creates 95% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

2.17

creates per match

1.13

1.08

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Netherlands U17

2.17

Northern Ireland U17

1.13

allows per match

Netherlands U17

1.08

Northern Ireland U17

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U17+0.00on par

Northern Ireland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U17 ↓

Northern Ireland U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Netherlands U17 or draw

81%

Netherlands U17 or Northern Ireland U17

80%

Draw or Northern Ireland U17

39%

Winning margin

Netherlands U17 wins by 2+

38%

Northern Ireland U17 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Netherlands U17 1+ goals

88%

Netherlands U17 2+ goals

63%

Netherlands U17 3+ goals

36%

Northern Ireland U17 1+ goals

67%

Northern Ireland U17 2+ goals

30%

Northern Ireland U17 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U17 (draw refunded)

77%

Northern Ireland U17 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U17 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Northern Ireland U17 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U17 attack 2.17 + Northern Ireland U17 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.15

Northern Ireland U17 attack 1.13 + Netherlands U17 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Netherlands U17 scores more

61%

level

20%

Northern Ireland U17 scores more

19%

Netherlands U17 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Netherlands U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff