Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs PAOK II — League #494 2026

Nestos Chrisoupolis
Nestos Chrisoupolis
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
PAOK II
PAOK II
1/10/2026League #494League #494 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nestos Chrisoupolis38%
×Draw27%
PAOK II35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.29
PAOK II
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.00
PAOK II
1.43

allows per match

Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.00
PAOK II
1.57

finishing

Nestos Chrisoupolis+0.00on par
PAOK II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nestos Chrisoupolis ↓

PAOK II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nestos Chrisoupolis or draw
65%
Nestos Chrisoupolis or PAOK II
73%
Draw or PAOK II
62%

Winning margin

Nestos Chrisoupolis wins by 2+
17%
PAOK II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nestos Chrisoupolis 1+ goals
72%
Nestos Chrisoupolis 2+ goals
37%
Nestos Chrisoupolis 3+ goals
14%
PAOK II 1+ goals
70%
PAOK II 2+ goals
34%
PAOK II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nestos Chrisoupolis (draw refunded)
53%
PAOK II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nestos Chrisoupolis at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

PAOK II away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nestos Chrisoupolis attack 1.00 + PAOK II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

PAOK II attack 1.43 + Nestos Chrisoupolis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nestos Chrisoupolis scores more
38%
level
27%
PAOK II scores more
35%

Nestos Chrisoupolis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nestos Chrisoupolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #494: Nestos Chrisoupolis 0–2 PAOK II

PAOK II beat Nestos Chrisoupolis 2-0 in League #494 on January 10, 2026.