Nest-Sotra 4–1 Levanger: Result & Stats

Nest-Sotra

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Levanger

5/6/2018

1. Division · Round 6Ågotnes Stadion (Ågotnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nest-Sotra56%

×Draw22%

Levanger21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nest-SotraExpected goals in this matchLevanger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.08

Nest-Sotra

1.90

Levanger

1.08

Nest-Sotra creates 76% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.60

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Nest-Sotra

1.60

Levanger

1.23

allows per match

Nest-Sotra

0.93

Levanger

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Levanger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nest-Sotra ↓

Levanger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nest-Sotra or draw

79%

Nest-Sotra or Levanger

78%

Draw or Levanger

44%

Winning margin

Nest-Sotra wins by 2+

33%

Levanger wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nest-Sotra 1+ goals

85%

Nest-Sotra 2+ goals

56%

Nest-Sotra 3+ goals

29%

Levanger 1+ goals

66%

Levanger 2+ goals

29%

Levanger 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)

73%

Levanger (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nest-Sotra at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Levanger away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nest-Sotra attack 1.60 + Levanger defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Levanger attack 1.23 + Nest-Sotra defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nest-Sotra scores more

56%

level

22%

Levanger scores more

21%

Nest-Sotra at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nest-Sotra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff