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Nest-Sotra vs Asane — 1. Division 2018

Nest-Sotra
Nest-Sotra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Asane
Asane
11/11/20181. Division1. Division · Round 30Ågotnes Stadion (Ågotnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nest-Sotra52%
×Draw24%
Asane24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nest-Sotra
1.75
Asane
1.10

Nest-Sotra creates 59% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 113 away

creates per match

Nest-Sotra
1.60
Asane
1.28

allows per match

Nest-Sotra
0.93
Asane
1.89

finishing

Nest-Sotra+0.00on par
Asane+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nest-Sotra ↓

Asane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nest-Sotra or draw
76%
Nest-Sotra or Asane
76%
Draw or Asane
48%

Winning margin

Nest-Sotra wins by 2+
29%
Asane wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nest-Sotra 1+ goals
83%
Nest-Sotra 2+ goals
52%
Nest-Sotra 3+ goals
25%
Asane 1+ goals
67%
Asane 2+ goals
30%
Asane 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)
69%
Asane (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nest-Sotra at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Asane away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.89 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nest-Sotra attack 1.60 + Asane defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Asane attack 1.28 + Nest-Sotra defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nest-Sotra scores more
52%
level
24%
Asane scores more
24%

Nest-Sotra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nest-Sotra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nest-Sotra vs Asane

Nest-Sotra beat Asane 1-0 in 1. Division on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Ågotnes Stadion (Ågotnes).