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Nesebar vs Vereya Stara Zagora — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
6 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
5/15/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 32Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nesebar87%
×Draw8%
Vereya Stara Zagora4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
3.61
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.74

Nesebar creates 388% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 36 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.53

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Vereya Stara Zagora
4.31

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
96%
Nesebar or Vereya Stara Zagora
92%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
13%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
72%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
97%
Nesebar 2+ goals
87%
Nesebar 3+ goals
67%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
52%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
17%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
95%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 3.61

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Nesebar scores more
87%
level
8%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
4%

Nesebar at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nesebar vs Vereya Stara Zagora

Nesebar beat Vereya Stara Zagora 6-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.