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Nesebar vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
8 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
9/28/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Nesebar68%
×Draw18%
Rodopa Smolyan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
2.44
Rodopa Smolyan
1.04

Nesebar creates 135% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 120 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
85%
Nesebar or Rodopa Smolyan
82%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
32%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
45%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
91%
Nesebar 2+ goals
70%
Nesebar 3+ goals
43%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
65%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
28%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
82%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.44

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Nesebar scores more
68%
level
18%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
15%

Nesebar at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Nesebar 8–0 Rodopa Smolyan

Nesebar beat Rodopa Smolyan 8-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.