Nesebar 3–1 FK Sliven: Result & Stats

Nesebar

FT

3 – 1

FK Sliven

4/3/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nesebar82%

×Draw11%

FK Sliven7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NesebarExpected goals in this matchFK Sliven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.42

0.95

Nesebar

3.42

FK Sliven

0.95

Nesebar creates 260% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 38 away

2.92

creates per match

0.95

allows per match

3.92

creates per match

Nesebar

2.92

FK Sliven

0.95

allows per match

Nesebar

0.95

FK Sliven

3.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par

FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

FK Sliven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw

93%

Nesebar or FK Sliven

89%

Draw or FK Sliven

18%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+

65%

FK Sliven wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals

97%

Nesebar 2+ goals

85%

Nesebar 3+ goals

64%

FK Sliven 1+ goals

61%

FK Sliven 2+ goals

25%

FK Sliven 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)

92%

FK Sliven (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.42

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Nesebar scores more

82%

level

11%

FK Sliven scores more

7%

Nesebar at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff