NEROCA 0–2 Shillong Lajong: Result & Stats

NEROCA

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Shillong Lajong

2/18/2024

I-League · Round 16SSA Ground No. 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

NEROCA39%

×Draw24%

Shillong Lajong37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEROCAExpected goals in this matchShillong Lajong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.54

NEROCA

1.57

Shillong Lajong

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

1.14

creates per match

1.47

1.61

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

NEROCA

1.14

Shillong Lajong

1.47

allows per match

NEROCA

1.61

Shillong Lajong

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEROCA+0.00on par

Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEROCA ↓

Shillong Lajong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

NEROCA or draw

63%

NEROCA or Shillong Lajong

76%

Draw or Shillong Lajong

61%

Winning margin

NEROCA wins by 2+

19%

Shillong Lajong wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

NEROCA 1+ goals

79%

NEROCA 2+ goals

46%

NEROCA 3+ goals

21%

Shillong Lajong 1+ goals

79%

Shillong Lajong 2+ goals

45%

Shillong Lajong 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

NEROCA (draw refunded)

51%

Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEROCA at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Shillong Lajong away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEROCA attack 1.14 + Shillong Lajong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Shillong Lajong attack 1.47 + NEROCA defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NEROCA scores more

39%

level

24%

Shillong Lajong scores more

37%

NEROCA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NEROCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff