NEROCA 0–2 Rajasthan United: Result & Stats

NEROCA

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rajasthan United

4/23/2022

I-League · Championship Round - 1Naihati Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

NEROCA41%

×Draw24%

Rajasthan United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEROCAExpected goals in this matchRajasthan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.43

NEROCA

1.59

Rajasthan United

1.43

NEROCA creates 11% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 49 away

1.14

creates per match

1.24

1.61

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

NEROCA

1.14

Rajasthan United

1.24

allows per match

NEROCA

1.61

Rajasthan United

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEROCA+0.00on par

Rajasthan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEROCA ↓

Rajasthan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

NEROCA or draw

66%

NEROCA or Rajasthan United

76%

Draw or Rajasthan United

59%

Winning margin

NEROCA wins by 2+

21%

Rajasthan United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

NEROCA 1+ goals

80%

NEROCA 2+ goals

47%

NEROCA 3+ goals

21%

Rajasthan United 1+ goals

76%

Rajasthan United 2+ goals

42%

Rajasthan United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

NEROCA (draw refunded)

55%

Rajasthan United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEROCA at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Rajasthan United away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEROCA attack 1.14 + Rajasthan United defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

Rajasthan United attack 1.24 + NEROCA defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

NEROCA scores more

41%

level

24%

Rajasthan United scores more

34%

NEROCA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "NEROCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff