NEROCA 0–3 Mohun Bagan: Result & Stats | I-League

NEROCA

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Mohun Bagan

1/23/2020

I-League · Round 9Khuman Lampak Main Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

NEROCA16%

×Draw22%

Mohun Bagan62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEROCAExpected goals in this matchMohun Bagan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.88

NEROCA

0.85

Mohun Bagan

1.88

Mohun Bagan creates 121% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 7 away

1.14

creates per match

2.14

1.61

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

NEROCA

1.14

Mohun Bagan

2.14

allows per match

NEROCA

1.61

Mohun Bagan

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEROCA+0.00on par

Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEROCA ↓

Mohun Bagan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

NEROCA or draw

38%

NEROCA or Mohun Bagan

78%

Draw or Mohun Bagan

84%

Winning margin

NEROCA wins by 2+

5%

Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

NEROCA 1+ goals

57%

NEROCA 2+ goals

21%

NEROCA 3+ goals

5%

Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

85%

Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

56%

Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

NEROCA (draw refunded)

21%

Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEROCA at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEROCA attack 1.14 + Mohun Bagan defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.85

Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + NEROCA defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

NEROCA scores more

16%

level

22%

Mohun Bagan scores more

62%

Mohun Bagan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff