NEROCA 1–2 Delhi FC: Result & Stats | I-League

NEROCA

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Delhi FC

2/23/2024

I-League · Round 17SSA Ground No. 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

NEROCA37%

×Draw24%

Delhi FC40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEROCAExpected goals in this matchDelhi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.63

NEROCA

1.55

Delhi FC

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 23 away

1.14

creates per match

1.65

1.61

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

NEROCA

1.14

Delhi FC

1.65

allows per match

NEROCA

1.61

Delhi FC

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEROCA+0.00on par

Delhi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEROCA ↓

Delhi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

NEROCA or draw

60%

NEROCA or Delhi FC

76%

Draw or Delhi FC

63%

Winning margin

NEROCA wins by 2+

18%

Delhi FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

NEROCA 1+ goals

79%

NEROCA 2+ goals

46%

NEROCA 3+ goals

20%

Delhi FC 1+ goals

80%

Delhi FC 2+ goals

48%

Delhi FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

NEROCA (draw refunded)

48%

Delhi FC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEROCA at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Delhi FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEROCA attack 1.14 + Delhi FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.55

Delhi FC attack 1.65 + NEROCA defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NEROCA scores more

37%

level

24%

Delhi FC scores more

40%

Delhi FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Delhi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff