NEROCA 1–2 Chennai City: Result & Stats | I-League

NEROCA

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chennai City

2/9/2021

I-League · Round 7Yuba Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

NEROCA30%

×Draw25%

Chennai City45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEROCAExpected goals in this matchChennai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.58

NEROCA

1.23

Chennai City

1.58

Chennai City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 16 away

1.14

creates per match

1.56

1.61

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

NEROCA

1.14

Chennai City

1.56

allows per match

NEROCA

1.61

Chennai City

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEROCA+0.00on par

Chennai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEROCA ↓

Chennai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

NEROCA or draw

55%

NEROCA or Chennai City

75%

Draw or Chennai City

70%

Winning margin

NEROCA wins by 2+

12%

Chennai City wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

NEROCA 1+ goals

71%

NEROCA 2+ goals

35%

NEROCA 3+ goals

13%

Chennai City 1+ goals

79%

Chennai City 2+ goals

47%

Chennai City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

NEROCA (draw refunded)

40%

Chennai City (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEROCA at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Chennai City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEROCA attack 1.14 + Chennai City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chennai City attack 1.56 + NEROCA defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NEROCA scores more

30%

level

25%

Chennai City scores more

45%

Chennai City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chennai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff