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NEROCA vs Aizawl — I-League 2019

NEROCA
NEROCA
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aizawl
Aizawl
4/9/2022I-LeagueI-League · Round 11Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

NEROCA37%
×Draw24%
Aizawl39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEROCA
1.47
Aizawl
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 65 away

creates per match

NEROCA
1.14
Aizawl
1.43

allows per match

NEROCA
1.61
Aizawl
1.80

finishing

NEROCA+0.00on par
Aizawl+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEROCA ↓

Aizawl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

NEROCA or draw
61%
NEROCA or Aizawl
76%
Draw or Aizawl
63%

Winning margin

NEROCA wins by 2+
17%
Aizawl wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

NEROCA 1+ goals
77%
NEROCA 2+ goals
43%
NEROCA 3+ goals
18%
Aizawl 1+ goals
78%
Aizawl 2+ goals
45%
Aizawl 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

NEROCA (draw refunded)
49%
Aizawl (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEROCA at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Aizawl away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.80 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEROCA attack 1.14 + Aizawl defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.47

Aizawl attack 1.43 + NEROCA defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NEROCA scores more
37%
level
24%
Aizawl scores more
39%

Aizawl at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aizawl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NEROCA 0 – 2 Aizawl

Aizawl beat NEROCA 2-0 in I-League on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.