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Neretvanac Opuzen vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
CANC
00:00
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
3/29/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 21Stadion Podvornica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Neretvanac Opuzen65%
×Draw19%
Zmaj Blato16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretvanac Opuzen
2.32
Zmaj Blato
1.06

Neretvanac Opuzen creates 119% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 25 away

creates per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.56
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.03
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretvanac Opuzen ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Neretvanac Opuzen or draw
84%
Neretvanac Opuzen or Zmaj Blato
81%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
35%

Winning margin

Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
42%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
90%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
67%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
40%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
65%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
29%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
80%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretvanac Opuzen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.56 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.32

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
65%
level
19%
Zmaj Blato scores more
16%

Neretvanac Opuzen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Neretvanac Opuzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Neretvanac Opuzen host Zmaj Blato

March 29, 2020: Neretvanac Opuzen take on Zmaj Blato in Third NL - Jug. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Neretvanac Opuzen host Zmaj Blato at Stadion Podvornica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.