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Neretvanac Opuzen vs Zagora — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
FT
3 – 3
Zagora
Zagora
5/19/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 29Stadion Podvornica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Neretvanac Opuzen44%
×Draw25%
Zagora31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.56
Zagora
1.25

Neretvanac Opuzen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.56
Zagora
1.47

allows per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.03
Zagora
1.57

finishing

Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par
Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretvanac Opuzen ↓

Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Neretvanac Opuzen or draw
69%
Neretvanac Opuzen or Zagora
75%
Draw or Zagora
56%

Winning margin

Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
22%
Zagora wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
79%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
46%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
21%
Zagora 1+ goals
71%
Zagora 2+ goals
36%
Zagora 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
59%
Zagora (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretvanac Opuzen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

Zagora away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.56 + Zagora defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zagora attack 1.47 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
44%
level
25%
Zagora scores more
31%

Neretvanac Opuzen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Neretvanac Opuzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Neretvanac Opuzen 3–3 Zagora

Neretvanac Opuzen and Zagora drew 3-3 in Third NL - Jug on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Podvornica in Opuzen.