Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Neretvanac Opuzen vs NK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
CANC
00:00
NK Zadar
NK Zadar
4/26/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 25Stadion Podvornica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Neretvanac Opuzen50%
×Draw25%
NK Zadar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.61
NK Zadar
1.07

Neretvanac Opuzen creates 50% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 9 away

creates per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.56
NK Zadar
1.11

allows per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.03
NK Zadar
1.67

finishing

Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par
NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretvanac Opuzen ↓

NK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Neretvanac Opuzen or draw
75%
Neretvanac Opuzen or NK Zadar
75%
Draw or NK Zadar
50%

Winning margin

Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
26%
NK Zadar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
80%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
48%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
22%
NK Zadar 1+ goals
66%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
29%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
66%
NK Zadar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretvanac Opuzen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.56 + NK Zadar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

NK Zadar attack 1.11 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
50%
level
25%
NK Zadar scores more
25%

Neretvanac Opuzen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Neretvanac Opuzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neretvanac Opuzen vs NK Zadar — Match Preview

Neretvanac Opuzen face NK Zadar on April 26, 2020 in this Third NL - Jug fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Neretvanac Opuzen host NK Zadar at Stadion Podvornica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.